Wednesday, May 18, 2016

AAPL rnings preview: what the analysts expect from Q3

With ’sQ3 rnings callstarting at 2pm PT/5pm ET today (which we’ll of course be covering live),Fortunehas posted the results of its usualquarterly into what analysts are predicting.The executive summary is that the analysts are pessimistic, though in line with ’s guidance.rnings [per share] estimates are down across the board — anywhere from -7% yr over yr (according to independentPatrick Smellie from the Brae Group) to -29% (Susquehanna’s Chris Caso) …
There is consensus that yr-on-yr revenues will be either flat or slightly down, but interestingly theconsistency we saw in the predicted s for Q2 (whichturned outto beunder-estimates) have gone.In eral, the converce we saw developing in Q2 has started to reverse. In April, the gap between the pros’ and the amateurs’ revenue estimates was just1.3%.Now they seem to be drifting apart again. The revenue gap for Q3 has more than doubled, to 3.5%. On rnings, the two groups are, on average, 7.1% apart.Here’s the full set of estimates (institutional analysts in blue, independents in green, ’s high and low guidance in red):As ever, it’s the institutional estimates that tend to drive the share price, so the s the market is looking for in terms of sales are these:iPhone: 26.57M
iPad: 17.62M
iPod: 4.98M
Mac: 3.86MAnd translated into the financials:Revenue: $34.94B
Gross margin: 36.6 percent
rnings Per Share (EPS): $7.29If hits or bts these s, the stock price will likely rise; if performance falls short, the stock price likely falls.

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